A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
